Shel Holtz, a contributing writer for Web Pro News, wrote an article titled More Predictions of Podcasting’s Demise. Greg Lindsay from Business 2.0 is predicting that mainstream media will edge out the indie podcasters.

But it does mean that podcasting’s wildcatting era is over before it ever really began. An unknown number of those Apple-made microstars will convince themselves that they hold a first-mover advantage in an untapped medium and that there is at least a modest living to be made from a popular weekly podcast that maybe, just maybe, could become a bona fide media brand.

Eventually they’ll fail, and they’ll fail faster than ever before. Because the sense of novelty attached to streaming audio and video — the sense that one could build a brand and a studio before big media showed up to play — has already passed when it comes to podcasting. For the first time in the history of the Net, big media showed up early to play.

Holtz summarizes the two presumptions that drive this argument:

• Listeners will prefer mainstream media content - Many people including me will choose indie podcasters if they provide quality content, simply because they talk like me.
• Interest in indie podcasting is driven by a sense of novelty - People begin to use podcast audio content to learn something new. Great when you’re on the road or prefer audio learning than reading.

Read Shel Holtz’s article: More Predictions of Podcasting’s Demise. Greg Lindsay’s article at Business 2.0: Podcasting’s Nonstar System.

Will the prediction be true? What about these successful podcast business cases? Will it be solid or temporary?

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